Estimating averted illnesses from influenza vaccination for children and pregnant women - El Salvador, Panama, and Peru, 2011-2018.

BACKGROUND: Estimating the burden of disease averted by vaccination can assist policymakers to implement, adjust, and communicate the value of vaccination programs. Demonstrating the use of a newly available modeling tool, we estimated the burden of influenza illnesses averted by seasonal influenza vaccination in El Salvador, Panama, and Peru during 2011-2017 among two influenza vaccine target populations: children aged 6-23 months and pregnant women. METHODS: We derived model inputs, including incidence, vaccine coverage, vaccine effectiveness, and multipliers from publicly available country-level influenza surveillance data and cohort studies. We also estimated changes in illnesses averted when countries' vaccine coverage was achieved using four different vaccine deployment strategies. RESULTS: Among children aged 6-23 months, influenza vaccination averted an estimated cumulative 2,161 hospitalizations, 81,907 medically-attended illnesses, and 126,987 overall illnesses during the study period, with a prevented fraction ranging from 0.3 % to 12.5 %. Among pregnant women, influenza vaccination averted an estimated cumulative 173 hospitalizations, 6,122 medically attended illnesses, and 16,412 overall illnesses, with a prevented fraction ranging from 0.2 % to 10.9 %. Compared to an influenza vaccine campaign with equal vaccine distribution during March-June, scenarios in which total cumulative coverage was achieved in March and April consistently resulted in the greatest increase in averted illness (23 %-3,129 % increase among young children and 22 %-3,260 % increase among pregnant women). DISCUSSION: Influenza vaccination campaigns in El Salvador, Panama, and Peru conducted between 2011 and 2018 prevented hundreds to thousands of influenza-associated hospitalizations and illnesses in young children and pregnant women. Existing vaccination programs could prevent additional illnesses, using the same number of vaccines, by achieving the highest possible coverage within the first two months of an influenza vaccine campaign.

Effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines against hospitalisation in Latin America during three pandemic waves, 2021-2022: a test-negative case-control design.

Background: Vaccine effectiveness (VE) is essential to monitor the performance of vaccines and generate strategic information to guide decision making. We pooled data from six Latin American countries to estimate the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines in preventing laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 hospitalisation during three different pandemic waves from February 2021 to September 2022. Methods: We used a test-negative case-control design in hospitalised adults in Chile, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Guatemala, Paraguay, and Uruguay. We estimated adjusted VE by age group (18-64 and ≥65 years), vaccine type and product for primary series vaccination and booster vaccination and by time since last dose during the Omicron variant dominant period. We used mixed effects logistic regression models adjusting for sex, age, week of onset of symptom onset and pre-existing conditions with country fit as a random effect term. Findings: We included 15,241 severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) patients in the analysis. Among adults 18-64 years, VE estimates for primary series vaccination during pre-Delta and Delta periods ranged by product from 66.5% to 95.1% and from 33.5% to 88.2% for older adults. During the Omicron period, VE estimates for primary series were lower and decreased by time since last vaccination, but VE increased to between 26.4% and 57.4% when a booster was administered. Interpretation: mRNA and viral vector vaccines presented higher VE for both primary series and booster. While VE decreased over time, protection against severe COVID-19-associated hospitalisation increased when booster doses were administered. Vaccination with additional doses should be recommended, particularly for persons at increased risk of developing severe COVID-19. Funding: This work was supported by a grant from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) through cooperative agreements with the Pan American Health Organization/World Health Organization.

End-of-season influenza vaccine effectiveness during the Southern Hemisphere 2022 influenza season - Chile, Paraguay, and Uruguay.

OBJECTIVES: This study estimated the 2022 end-of-season influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) against severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) hospitalization in Chile, Paraguay, and Uruguay. METHODS: We pooled surveillance data from SARI cases in 18 sentinel surveillance hospitals in Chile (n = 9), Paraguay (n = 2), and Uruguay (n = 7) from March 16-November 30, 2022. VE was estimated using a test-negative design and logistic regression models adjusted for country, age, sex, presence of ≥1 comorbidity, and week of illness onset. VE estimates were stratified by influenza virus type and subtype (when available) and influenza vaccine target population, categorized as children, individuals with comorbidities, and older adults, defined per countries' national immunization policies. RESULTS: Among the 3147 SARI cases, there were 382 (12.1%) influenza test-positive case patients; 328 (85.9%) influenza case patients were in Chile, 33 (8.6%) were in Paraguay, and 21 (5.5%) were in Uruguay. In all countries, the predominant subtype was influenza A(H3N2) (92.6% of influenza cases). Adjusted VE against any influenza-associated SARI hospitalization was 33.8% (95% confidence interval: 15.3%, 48.2%); VE against influenza A(H3N2)-associated SARI hospitalization was 30.4% (95% confidence interval: 10.1%, 46.0%). VE estimates were similar across target populations. CONCLUSION: During the 2022 influenza season, influenza vaccination reduced the odds of hospitalization among those vaccinated by one-third. Health officials should encourage influenza vaccination in accordance with national recommendations.

Severity of influenza illness by seasonal influenza vaccination status among hospitalised patients in four South American countries, 2013-19: a surveillance-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Although several studies have reported attenuated influenza illness following influenza vaccination, results have been inconsistent and have focused predominantly on adults in the USA. This study aimed to evaluate the severity of influenza illness by vaccination status in a broad range of influenza vaccine target groups across multiple South American countries. METHODS: We analysed data from four South American countries (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Paraguay) participating in REVELAC-i, a multicentre, test-negative design, vaccine effectiveness network including 41 sentinel hospitals. Individuals hospitalised at one of these centres with severe acute respiratory infection were tested for influenza by real-time RT-PCR, and were included in the analysis if they had complete information about their vaccination status and outcomes of their hospital stay. We used multivariable logistic regression weighted by inverse probability of vaccination and adjusted for antiviral use, duration of illness before admission, and calendar week, to calculate the adjusted odds ratios (aORs) of intensive care unit (ICU) admission and in-hospital death (and combinations of these outcomes) among influenza-positive patients by vaccination status for three target groups: young children (aged 6-24 months), adults (aged 18-64 years) with pre-existing health conditions, and older adults (aged ≥65 years). Survival curves were used to compare length of hospital stay by vaccination status in each target group. FINDINGS: 2747 patients hospitalised with PCR-confirmed influenza virus infection between Jan 1, 2013, and Dec 8, 2019, were included in the study: 649 children (70 [10·8%] fully vaccinated, 193 [29·7%] partially vaccinated) of whom 87 (13·4%) were admitted to ICU and 12 (1·8%) died in hospital; 520 adults with pre-existing medical conditions (118 [22·7%] vaccinated), of whom 139 (26·7%) were admitted to ICU and 55 (10·6%) died in hospital; and 1578 older adults (609 [38·6%] vaccinated), of whom 271 (17·2%) were admitted to ICU and 220 (13·9%) died in hospital. We observed earlier discharge among partially vaccinated children (adjusted hazard ratio 1·14 [95% CI 1·01-1·29]), fully vaccinated children (1·24 [1·04-1·47]), and vaccinated adults with pre-existing medical conditions (1·78 [1·18-2·69]) compared with their unvaccinated counterparts, but not among vaccinated older adults (0·82 [0·65-1·04]). Compared with unvaccinated individuals, lower odds of ICU admission were found for partially vaccinated children (aOR 0·64 [95% CI 0·44-0·92]) and fully vaccinated children (0·52 [0·28-0·98]), but not for adults with pre-existing conditions (1·25 [0·93-1·67]) or older adults (0·88 [0·72-1·08]). Lower odds of in-hospital death (0·62 [0·50-0·78]) were found in vaccinated versus unvaccinated older adults, with or without ICU admission, but did not differ significantly in partially vaccinated (1·35 [0·57-3·20]) or fully vaccinated young children (0·88 [0·16-4·82]) or adults with pre-existing medical conditions (1·09 [0·73-1·63]) compared with the respective unvaccinated patient groups. INTERPRETATION: Influenza vaccination was associated with illness attenuation among those hospitalised with influenza, although results differed by vaccine target group. These findings might suggest that attenuation of disease severity might be specific to certain target groups, seasons, or settings. FUNDING: US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. TRANSLATIONS: For the Spanish and Portuguese translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Influenza Incidence and Vaccine Effectiveness During the Southern Hemisphere Influenza Season - Chile, 2022.

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected influenza virus transmission, with historically low activity, atypical timing, or altered duration of influenza seasons during 2020-22 (1,2). Community mitigation measures implemented since 2020, including physical distancing and face mask use, have, in part, been credited for low influenza detections globally during the pandemic, compared with those during prepandemic seasons (1). Reduced population exposure to natural influenza infections during 2020-21 and relaxed community mitigation measures after introduction of COVID-19 vaccines could increase the possibility of severe influenza epidemics. Partners in Chile and the United States assessed Southern Hemisphere influenza activity and estimated age-group-specific rates of influenza-attributable hospitalizations and vaccine effectiveness (VE) in Chile in 2022. Chile's most recent influenza season began in January 2022, which was earlier than during prepandemic seasons and was associated predominantly with influenza A(H3N2) virus, clade 3C.2a1b.2a.2. The cumulative incidence of influenza-attributable pneumonia and influenza (P&I) hospitalizations was 5.1 per 100,000 person-years during 2022, which was higher than that during 2020-21 but lower than incidence during the 2017-19 influenza seasons. Adjusted VE against influenza A(H3N2)-associated hospitalization was 49%. These findings indicate that influenza activity continues to be disrupted after emergence of SARS-CoV-2 in 2020. Northern Hemisphere countries might benefit from preparing for an atypical influenza season, which could include early influenza activity with potentially severe disease during the 2022-23 season, especially in the absence of prevention measures, including vaccination. Health authorities should encourage all eligible persons to seek influenza vaccination and take precautions to reduce transmission of influenza (e.g., avoiding close contact with persons who are ill).

[Molecular detection of gastrointestinal pathogens among children under 5 years old with diarrhea in a hospital center for rotavirus sentinel surveillance in Chile]. / Detección molecular de patógenos entéricos en niños con diarrea en un hospital centinela de vigilancia de rotavirus en Chile.

BACKGROUND: Infectious diarrhea is still a major problem in public health, especially in children under 5 years of age. The identification of the etiologic agent is important for the clinical management of the diarrhea episode and, from the epidemiological point of view, to implement control measures. AIM: To determine the presence of gastrointestinal pathogens in children under five years of age with diarrhea in a Chilean rotavirus surveillance center. METHODS: Observational study in children under five years of age who were hospitalized for diarrhea at the Dr. Luis Calvo Mackenna Hospital from December 2015 to December 2019. Molecular detection was performed using the FilmArray gastrointestinal (FilmArray GI®) panel. RESULTS: We analyzed 493 diarrheal stool samples of children, 427 samples (87%) were positive and 66 samples (13%) were negative. Of positive samples, 174 samples (41%) and 253 samples (59%) were positive for one or more pathogen, respectively. In children under one year and the group between one and four years there was a predominance of infections caused by enteric virus. Rotavirus and norovirus were the most common virus in both age groups. The most frequent bacteria were EPEC (27%), C. difficile (17%), EAEC (14%) and Campylobacter (9%). In parasites, Giardia lamblia and Cryptosporidium were identified, in 3% and 1% of the total samples, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The molecular detection system used allowed an increase in the detection of enteropathogens in children under five years of age. The information generated by this type of surveillance could help to characterize the episodes of diarrhea in the population and might be a tool to technically advise the authorities in the decision-making process for the implementation of control measures.

Detección molecular de patógenos entéricos en niños con diarrea en un hospital centinela de vigilancia de rotavirus en Chile / Molecular detection of gastrointestinal pathogens among children under 5 years old with diarrhea in a hospital center for rotavirus sentinel surveillance in Chile

INTRODUCCIÓN: Las diarreas de causa infecciosa son un problema de salud pública, especialmente en niños bajo los cinco años. La identificación de los agentes etiológicos puede ser relevante para el manejo del cuadro clínico y, desde el punto de vista epidemiológico, para la implementación de medidas de control. OBJETIVO: Determinar la presencia de patógenos entéricos en niños bajo los cinco años que se hospitalizaron por diarrea aguda en uno de los centros centinelas de la red de vigilancia de rotavirus en Chile. PACIENTES Y MÉTODOS: Estudio observacional en niños menores de cinco años que se internaron por cuadros de diarrea en el Hospital Dr. Luis Calvo Mackenna, durante diciembre del 2015 a diciembre del 2019, el que forma parte de la red de vigilancia de rotavirus del Ministerio de Salud de Chile. Las muestras fecales se analizaron mediante un test molecular, FilmArray GI® panel, que permite la detección de 22 patógenos entéricos virales, bacterianos y parasitarios. RESULTADOS: Se analizaron 493 muestras fecales de niños con episodios de diarrea infecciosa, detectando al menos un patógeno en 427 muestras (87%). De estas muestras positivas, se detectó solo un patógeno en 174 muestras (41%) y dos o más patógenos en 253 muestras (59%). En el grupo de niños bajo un año y el grupo entre uno y cuatro años hubo un predominio de infecciones causadas por virus gastroentéricos, siendo rotavirus y norovirus los virus más detectados en ambos grupos de edad. Las bacterias más frecuentes fueron EPEC (27%), C. difficile (17%), EAEC (14%) y Campylobacter (9%). Respecto a los parásitos, se identificó Giardia lamblia y Cryptosporidium, en el 3 y 1% del total de las muestras, respectivamente. CONCLUSIÓN: La detección molecular utilizada permitió detectar un alto número de enteropatógenos en niños bajo los cinco años. La información generada por este tipo de vigilancia, podría ayudar a caracterizar en la población los episodios de diarrea causados por los principales patógenos entéricos y podría ser una herramienta para asesorar técnicamente a las autoridades en la toma de decisión para la implementación de medidas de control contra estos patógenos.

BACKGROUND: Infectious diarrhea is still a major problem in public health, especially in children under 5 years of age. The identification of the etiologic agent is important for the clinical management of the diarrhea episode and, from the epidemiological point of view, to implement control measures. AIM: To determine the presence of gastrointestinal pathogens in children under five years of age with diarrhea in a Chilean rotavirus surveillance center. METHODS: Observational study in children under five years of age who were hospitalized for diarrhea at the Dr. Luis Calvo Mackenna Hospital from December 2015 to December 2019. Molecular detection was performed using the FilmArray gastrointestinal (FilmArray GI®) panel. RESULTS: We analyzed 493 diarrheal stool samples of children, 427 samples (87%) were positive and 66 samples (13%) were negative. Of positive samples, 174 samples (41%) and 253 samples (59%) were positive for one or more pathogen, respectively. In children under one year and the group between one and four years there was a predominance of infections caused by enteric virus. Rotavirus and norovirus were the most common virus in both age groups. The most frequent bacteria were EPEC (27%), C. difficile (17%), EAEC (14%) and Campylobacter (9%). In parasites, Giardia lamblia and Cryptosporidium were identified, in 3% and 1% of the total samples, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The molecular detection system used allowed an increase in the detection of enteropathogens in children under five years of age. The information generated by this type of surveillance could help to characterize the episodes of diarrhea in the population and might be a tool to technically advise the authorities in the decision-making process for the implementation of control measures.

Estimating the burden of influenza-associated hospitalizations and deaths in Chile during 2012-2014.

BACKGROUND: Influenza is a vaccine preventable disease that causes important morbidity and mortality worldwide. Estimating the burden of influenza disease is difficult. However, there are some methods based in surveillance data and laboratory testing that can be used for this purpose. OBJECTIVES: Estimating the burden of serious illness from influenza by means of hospitalization and death records during the period between 2012 and 2014, and using information from Severe Acute Respiratory Illness (SARI) surveillance. METHODS: To estimate the Chilean rate of influenza-associated hospitalizations and deaths, we applied the influenza positivity of respiratory samples tested in six SARI surveillance sentinel hospitals to the hospitalizations and deaths from the records with ICD-10 codes from influenza and pneumonia. RESULTS: Annually, 5320 people are hospitalized for influenza and 447 die for this cause. The annual influenza-associated hospitalization rate for the period was 71.5/100 000 person-year for <5 years old, 11.8/100 000 person-year for people between 5 and 64 years old; and 156.0/100 000 person-year for ≥65 years. The annual mortality rate for the period was 0.08/100 000 person-year for <5 years; 0.3/100 000 person-year for people between 5 and 64 years; and 22.8/100 000 person-year for ≥65 years. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first study of influenza burden in Chile. Every year an important quantity of hospitalizations and deaths result from influenza infection. In countries in temperate zones, it is important to know the burden of influenza in order to prepare the health care network and to assess preventive intervention currently in practice and the new ones to implementing.

Matriz de riesgo para estimar brotes importados de sarampión o rubéola aplicada a Chile / Risk matrix for estimating imported outbreaks of measles or rubella in Chile / Matriz de risco para estimar surtos importados de sarampo ou rubéola aplicada ao Chile

[Español]. Objetivo. Desarrollar una matriz de riesgo para evaluar el riesgo continuo de brotes de sarampión y rubéola asociados con la importación de casos en Chile. Métodos. El desarrollo de herramientas de evaluación de riesgos se realizó en las siguientes etapas: preparación y aprobación de variables biológicas, programáticas y demográficas, ponderación por un panel de expertos de las variables seleccionadas, cálculo del índice de riesgo, espacialización, y transferencia de conocimiento. Resultados. De las 346 comunas de Chile analizadas, 34% se encontraba en el intervalo de riesgo alto de desarrollar un brote de sarampión y rubéola si se producía la introducción del virus, 59%, en el intervalo de riesgo medio, y 3%, en el intervalo de riesgo bajo. El porcentaje restante correspondió a comunas carentes de datos en al menos una de las trece variables requeridas para el cálculo del índice de riesgo. Conclusión. La utilización de esta herramienta permitirá a los equipos subnacionales emplear sus propios datos para evaluar el riesgo de brotes en sus áreas y realizar acciones correctivas para responder rápidamente a cualquier importación de virus en la fase posterior a la eliminación.

[English]. Objective. Develop a risk matrix to evaluate the ongoing risk of measles and rubella outbreaks associated with imported cases in Chile. Methods. The risk assessment tools were developed in the following stages: preparation and approval of biological, programmatic, and demographic variables; weighting of the selected variables by a panel of experts; calculation of the risk index; specialization; and knowledge transfer. Results. Of the 346 Chilean communes analyzed, 34% were in the high-risk interval for experiencing a measles and rubella outbreak with the introduction of the virus, 59%, in the average-risk interval, and 3%, in the low-risk interval. The remaining percentage corresponded to communes lacking data in at least one of the 13 variables required for calculating the risk index. Conclusion. Use of this tool will enable subnational teams to use their own data to evaluate the risk of outbreaks in their area and take corrective action for a rapid response to any importation of these viruses in the post-elimination phase.

[Português]. Objetivo. Desenvolver uma matriz de risco para avaliar o risco contínuo de surtos de sarampo e rubéola associados com a importação de casos no Chile. Métodos. As ferramentas de avaliação de riscos foram desenvolvidas nas seguintes etapas: preparação e aprovação das variáveis biológicas, programáticas e demográficas, consideração das variáveis selecionadas por painel de especialistas, cálculo do índice de risco, especialização e transferência de conhecimento. Resultados. Das 346 comunidades analisadas, 34% estavam dentro da faixa de alto risco de ter um surto de sarampo e rubéola com a introdução do vírus, 59% na faixa de risco intermediário e 3% na faixa de baixo risco. O percentual restante correspondeu a comunidades com dados insuficientes em pelo menos uma das 13 variáveis necessárias ao cálculo do índice de risco. Conclusão. A utilização desta ferramenta permitirá às equipes subnacionais lancer mão de dados próprios para avaliar o risco de surtos e realizar medidas corretivas para responder rapidamente a qualquer importação de vírus na fase posterior à eliminação.

Case-Control Study of Risk Factors for Meningococcal Disease in Chile.

An outbreak of meningococcal disease with a case-fatality rate of 30% and caused by predominantly serogroup W of Neisseria meningitidis began in Chile in 2012. This outbreak required a case-control study to assess determinants and risk factors for infection. We identified confirmed cases during January 2012-March 2013 and selected controls by random sampling of the population, matched for age and sex, resulting in 135 case-patients and 618 controls. Sociodemographic variables, habits, and previous illnesses were studied. Analyses yielded adjusted odds ratios as estimators of the probability of disease development. Results indicated that conditions of social vulnerability, such as low income and overcrowding, as well as familial history of this disease and clinical histories, especially chronic diseases and hospitalization for respiratory conditions, increased the probability of illness. Findings should contribute to direction of intersectoral public policies toward a highly vulnerable social group to enable them to improve their living conditions and health.

[Risk matrix for estimating imported outbreaks of measles or rubella in ChileMatriz de risco para estimar surtos importados de sarampo ou rubéola aplicada ao Chile]. / Matriz de riesgo para estimar brotes importados de sarampión o rubéola aplicada a Chile.

OBJECTIVE: Develop a risk matrix to evaluate the ongoing risk of measles and rubella outbreaks associated with imported cases in Chile. METHODS: The risk assessment tools were developed in the following stages: preparation and approval of biological, programmatic, and demographic variables; weighting of the selected variables by a panel of experts; calculation of the risk index; specialization; and knowledge transfer. RESULTS: Of the 346 Chilean communes analyzed, 34% were in the high-risk interval for experiencing a measles and rubella outbreak with the introduction of the virus, 59%, in the average-risk interval, and 3%, in the low-risk interval. The remaining percentage corresponded to communes lacking data in at least one of the 13 variables required for calculating the risk index. CONCLUSION: Use of this tool will enable subnational teams to use their own data to evaluate the risk of outbreaks in their area and take corrective action for a rapid response to any importation of these viruses in the post-elimination phase.

OBJETIVO: Desenvolver uma matriz de risco para avaliar o risco contínuo de surtos de sarampo e rubéola associados com a importação de casos no Chile. MÉTODOS: As ferramentas de avaliação de riscos foram desenvolvidas nas seguintes etapas: preparação e aprovação das variáveis biológicas, programáticas e demográficas, consideração das variáveis selecionadas por painel de especialistas, cálculo do índice de risco, especialização e transferência de conhecimento. RESULTADOS: Das 346 comunidades analisadas, 34% estavam dentro da faixa de alto risco de ter um surto de sarampo e rubéola com a introdução do vírus, 59% na faixa de risco intermediário e 3% na faixa de baixo risco. O percentual restante correspondeu a comunidades com dados insuficientes em pelo menos uma das 13 variáveis necessárias ao cálculo do índice de risco. CONCLUSÃO: A utilização desta ferramenta permitirá às equipes subnacionais lançar mão de dados próprios para avaliar o risco de surtos e realizar medidas corretivas para responder rapidamente a qualquer importação de vírus na fase posterior à eliminação.

Matriz de riesgo para estimar brotes importados de sarampión o rubéola aplicada a Chile / Risk matrix for estimating imported outbreaks of measles or rubella in Chile / Matriz de risco para estimar surtos importados de sarampo ou rubéola aplicada ao Chile

RESUMEN Objetivo Desarrollar una matriz de riesgo para evaluar el riesgo continuo de brotes de sarampión y rubéola asociados con la importación de casos en Chile. Métodos El desarrollo de herramientas de evaluación de riesgos se realizó en las siguientes etapas: preparación y aprobación de variables biológicas, programáticas y demográficas, ponderación por un panel de expertos de las variables seleccionadas, cálculo del índice de riesgo, espacialización, y transferencia de conocimiento. Resultados De las 346 comunas de Chile analizadas, 34% se encontraba en el intervalo de riesgo alto de desarrollar un brote de sarampión y rubéola si se producía la introducción del virus, 59%, en el intervalo de riesgo medio, y 3%, en el intervalo de riesgo bajo. El porcentaje restante correspondió a comunas carentes de datos en al menos una de las trece variables requeridas para el cálculo del índice de riesgo. Conclusión La utilización de esta herramienta permitirá a los equipos subnacionales emplear sus propios datos para evaluar el riesgo de brotes en sus áreas y realizar acciones correctivas para responder rápidamente a cualquier importación de virus en la fase posterior a la eliminación.

Objective Develop a risk matrix to evaluate the ongoing risk of measles and rubella outbreaks associated with imported cases in Chile. Methods The risk assessment tools were developed in the following stages: preparation and approval of biological, programmatic, and demographic variables; weighting of the selected variables by a panel of experts; calculation of the risk index; specialization; and knowledge transfer. Results Of the 346 Chilean communes analyzed, 34% were in the high-risk interval for experiencing a measles and rubella outbreak with the introduction of the virus, 59%, in the average-risk interval, and 3%, in the low-risk interval. The remaining percentage corresponded to communes lacking data in at least one of the 13 variables required for calculating the risk index. Conclusion Use of this tool will enable subnational teams to use their own data to evaluate the risk of outbreaks in their area and take corrective action for a rapid response to any importation of these viruses in the post-elimination phase.

RESUMO Objetivo Desenvolver uma matriz de risco para avaliar o risco contínuo de surtos de sarampo e rubéola associados com a importação de casos no Chile. Métodos As ferramentas de avaliação de riscos foram desenvolvidas nas seguintes etapas: preparação e aprovação das variáveis biológicas, programáticas e demográficas, consideração das variáveis selecionadas por painel de especialistas, cálculo do índice de risco, especialização e transferência de conhecimento. Resultados Das 346 comunidades analisadas, 34% estavam dentro da faixa de alto risco de ter um surto de sarampo e rubéola com a introdução do vírus, 59% na faixa de risco intermediário e 3% na faixa de baixo risco. O percentual restante correspondeu a comunidades com dados insuficientes em pelo menos uma das 13 variáveis necessárias ao cálculo do índice de risco. Conclusão A utilização desta ferramenta permitirá às equipes subnacionais lançar mão de dados próprios para avaliar o risco de surtos e realizar medidas corretivas para responder rapidamente a qualquer importação de vírus na fase posterior à eliminação.

[Clinical features and prognostic factors of meningococcal disease: a case series study in Chile during the 2012-2013 outbreak]. / Características clínicas y factores pronósticos de la enfermedad meningocóccica: un estudio de serie de casos en Chile durante el brote 2012-2013.

INTRODUCTION: Meningococcal disease (MD) is a major global problem because of its case fatality rate and sequels. Since 2012 cases of serogroup W have increased in Chile, with nonspecific clinical presentation, high case fatality rate and serious consequences. OBJECTIVE: To characterize the evolution and outcome of MD cases between January 2012 and March 2013 in Chile. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Case series considering 149 MD cases of 7 regions. A questionnaire was applied and clinical records were reviewed, including individual, agent, clinical course and healthcare process variables. The analysis allowed to obtain estimates of the OR as likelihood of dying. RESULTS: 51.5% was meningococcemia, the case fatality rate reached 27%, prevailing serogroup W (46.6%). Factors that increased the probability of dying: > age, belonging to indigenous people, having lived a stressful event, having diarrhea, impaired consciousness, cardiovascular symptoms, low oxygen saturation and low Glasgow coma scale score. DISCUSSION: The case fatality rate exceeded normal levels and was higher in serogroup W. Increasing in this serogroup, associated to the increased presence of nonspecific symptoms or rapid progression to septicemia, hit a health system accustomed to more classic meningococcal disease presentation, which could partly explain the observed increased fatality rate.

Características clínicas y factores pronósticos de la enfermedad meningocóccica: un estudio de serie de casos en Chile durante el brote 2012-2013 / Clinical features and prognostic factors of meningococcal disease: a case series study in Chile during the 2012-2013 outbreak

Introduction: Meningococcal disease (MD) is a major global problem because of its case fatality rate and sequels. Since 2012 cases of serogroup W have increased in Chile, with nonspecific clinical presentation, high case fatality rate and serious consequences. Objective: To characterize the evolution and outcome of MD cases between January 2012 and March 2013 in Chile. Material and Methods: Case series considering149 MD cases of 7 regions. A questionnaire was applied and clinical records were reviewed, including individual, agent, clinical course and healthcare process variables. The analysis allowed to obtain estimates of the OR as likelihoodof dying. Results: 51.5% was meningococcemia, the case fatality rate reached 27%, prevailing serogroup W (46.6%). Factors that increased the probability of dying: > age, belonging to indigenous people, having lived a stressful event, having diarrhea, impaired consciousness, cardiovascular symptoms, low oxygen saturation and low Glasgow coma scale score. Discussion: The case fatality rate exceeded normal levels and was higher in serogroup W. Increasing in this serogroup, associated to the increased presence of nonspecific symptoms or rapid progression to septicemia, hit a health system accustomed to more classic meningococcal disease presentation, which could partly explain the observed increased fatality rate.

Introducción: La enfermedad meningocóccica (EM) es un importante problema mundial por su letalidad y secuelas. Desde 2012 aumentaron en Chile los casos por serogrupo W, con presentación clínica inespecífica, elevada letalidad y secuelas graves. Objetivo: Caracterizar la evolución y desenlace de EM en casos desde enero de 2012 a marzo de 2013 en Chile. Material y Método: Serie de 149 casos de EM de siete regiones. Se aplicó un cuestionario y se revisaron registros clínicos, incluyendo variables del individuo, agente, curso clínico y proceso de atención. Los análisis permitieron obtener OR como estimadores de la probabilidad de fallecer. Resultados: El 51,5% se presentó como meningococcemia, la letalidad alcanzó a 27%, predominando el serogrupo W (46,6%). Aumentaron la probabilidad de fallecer: una mayor edad, pertenencia a pueblos originarios, haber vivido evento estresante, presentar diarrea, compromiso de conciencia, síntomas cardiovasculares, baja saturación de oxígeno y bajo puntaje de Glasgow. Discusión: La letalidad superó las frecuencias habituales y fue mayor en el serogrupo W. El aumento de este serogrupo, asociado a la mayor presencia de síntomas inespecíficos o a la rápida progresión a septicemia, impactó en un sistema de salud habituado a cuadros más clásicos de EM, lo que podría explicar en parte, la mayor letalidad observada.

[Clinical characterization of cases with meningococcal disease by W135 group in Chile, 2012]. / Caracterización clínica de los casos de enfermedad meningocóccica por serogrupo W135 confirmados durante el año 2012 en Chile.

BACKGROUND: During 2012 in Chile, there were 60 cases of serogroup W135 meningococcal disease, which accounts for 57.7% of identified serogroup cases. AIM: To describe main clinical features of patients with serogroup W135 meningococcal disease confirmed in 2012. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Descriptive study of case series based on retrospective review of medical records. RESULTS: Male patients represented 61.7% and 46.7% were children under 5 years. At first clinical attention, 3.4% of patients were suspected of meningococcal disease, while 83.3% had meningococcemia as final diagnosis. Also at first attention, the most common symptoms or clinical signs were fever ≥ 38.0° C (60.3%), cold symptoms (52.5%), and nausea or vomiting (46.7%). Meningeal signs had a low frequency (8.7%). Diarrhea was the second most common symptom found among deceased patients (55.6%) and statistically higher than survivors (26.8%; p = 0.034). Six cases reported with sequelae: limb amputation, hearing loss or neurological damage, and mortality was 31.7%. DISCUSSION: In 2012, serogroup W135 meningococcal disease reported high mortality, atypical clinical presentation, low initial meningococcal disease diagnosis, and a high number of cases with poor clinical course.

Caracterización clínica de los casos de enfermedad meningocóccica por serogrupo W135 confirmados durante el año 2012 en Chile / Clinical characterization of cases with meningococcal disease by W135 group in Chile, 2012

Background: During 2012 in Chile, there were 60 cases of serogroup W135 meningococcal disease, which accounts for 57.7% of identified serogroup cases. Aim: To describe main clinical features of patients with serogroup W135 meningococcal disease confirmed in 2012. Material and Methods: Descriptive study of case series based on retrospective review of medical records. Results: Male patients represented 61.7% and 46.7% were children under 5 years. At first clinical attention, 3.4% of patients were suspected of meningococcal disease, while 83.3% had meningococcemia as final diagnosis. Also at first attention, the most common symptoms or clinical signs were fever ≥ 38.0° C (60.3%), cold symptoms (52.5%), and nausea or vomiting (46.7%). Meningeal signs had a low frequency (8.7%). Diarrhea was the second most common symptom found among deceased patients (55.6%) and statistically higher than survivors (26.8%; p = 0.034). Six cases reported with sequelae: limb amputation, hearing loss or neurological damage, and mortality was 31.7%. Discussion: In 2012, serogroup W135 meningococcal disease reported high mortality, atypical clinical presentation, low initial meningococcal disease diagnosis, and a high number of cases with poor clinical course.

Introducción: En el año 2012 en Chile, se presentaron 60 casos de enfermedad meningocóccica (EM) causadas por serogrupo W135, que representa 57,7% de los casos seroagrupables. Objetivo: Describir las características clínicas de los casos de EM por serogrupo W135 confirmados durante el año 2012. Material y Métodos: Estudio descriptivo, de series de casos basada en la revisión de las fichas clínicas. Resultados: El 61,7% de los casos fueron varones y 46,7% tenía menos de 5 años. En la primera consulta, 3,4% tuvo sospecha de EM, en tanto 83,3% tuvo diagnóstico final de meningococcemia. En la primera consulta, los síntomas y/o signos más frecuentes fueron fiebre ≥ 38,0°C (60,3%), cuadro catarral respiratorio (52,5%) y náuseas y/o vómitos (46,7%). Mientras que los signos de irritación meníngea se presentaron en 8,7%. En los fallecidos la diarrea fue el segundo síntoma más frecuente (55,6%), y estadísticamente superior respecto de los sobrevivientes (26,8%; p = 0,034). Seis casos presentaron secuelas: amputaciones de extremidades, hipoacusia o daño neurológico y la letalidad fue de 31,7%. Discusión: la EM por el serogrupo W135 en el año 2012, tuvo una elevada letalidad, presentación clínica inespecífica, sospecha diagnóstica inicial baja y un alto número de casos cursaron con una mala evolución.